Home prices in Boulder County fell slightly in November 2022 compared to last month, but are up significantly year over year (YOY). Longmont’s (YOY) price increased the least at 9.5 percent, followed by Boulder at 10.9 percent, Erie at 15.7 percent and Lafayette at 23.0 percent. Because Lafayette has a smaller number of home sales (13) in November compared to Longmont’s 104, Boulder’s 52, and Erie’s 47 it has a much higher likely hood of wild gyrations in the average sold price.
The historical trends from January 2017 through November 2022 indicate the average sold price in all cities should be much lower than it actually is. Because of the wild market from January 2021 to the spring of this year where the average sold prices peaked; Boulder at $1,855,151 in April, Lafayette at $1,220,393 in March, Erie at $917,972 and Longmont at $869,625 in March, people believe the market is in a free fall and we should all panic. This is definitely not the case.
In Boulder the average sold price between January 1, 2017 and January 1 2021 increased approximately $62,500 per year. If this trend continued the average sold price in November 2022 would have been approximately $1,373,000. The actual average sold price was $1,649,086, a difference of $276,000.
Erie’s average sold price peaked in May at $917,972. In November it was $$775,772 a drop of $142,000. However, the historical trend line predicts it should have been $625,000.
Lafayette’s trend line predicts the average sold price in November 2022 should have been less than $750,000. The actual average sold price in November was $806,500, $55,000 more than expected in a normal market, but much lower than the high of $1,220,393 in March of this year.
Longmont continues the trend of higher than expected sold prices. The historical data projects an average sold price of approximately 583,000. This is almost $72,000 less than the actual average sold price of $654,568 in November.
The supply of homes for sale is less than two months in all these markets and the longest average days on market is in Lafayette at 69.
Obviously sellers could have garnered a higher price for their home this past spring, but it is still a good market to be a seller.
Data from IRES MLS December 19, 2022